Kelowna Real Estate: Two Markets, Two Very Different Stories
Something unusual is happening in the Kelowna real estate market right now. Condo prices continue to fall and sales keep dropping, while single family home prices are actually increasing. Town homes saw a jaw-dropping 10% price drop in a single month. Depending on what type of property you're looking at, you could be experiencing a completely different market. Here's what the December numbers tell us about where things stand heading into 2026.Sales Activity: A Mixed Picture
December sales were down 4% year-over-year compared to December 2024, though still higher than 2023. What's interesting is how different property types performed. Single family home sales were up 6.3% from last year with 119 transactions. Town home sales increased 10% with 44 sales. But the condo market? Only 48 sales, representing a 30% drop from this time last year.Looking at the bigger picture, the last three years have been the slowest for sales in the past decade. While 2025 did outpace the previous two years, activity remains well below what we saw through most of the 2015-2020 period.Inventory: More Choice Than We've Had in a Decade
December inventory was up 2.2% year-over-year. More significantly, we now have the highest inventory levels in a decade. This is considerably above the 10-year rolling average and represents real opportunity for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.The condo market tells the most dramatic inventory story. We have far more condos available than the historical average, and this doesn't even include new construction inventory that developers are sitting on outside of the MLS system.Single Family Homes: Steady and Stable
The single family detached market continues to show resilience. December's benchmark price came in at $1,045,000, up 2.4% from November. Year-over-year, prices are essentially flat, down just 0.7% (about $8,000). While prices are 14% below the 2022 peak, they've remained remarkably stable over the past 18 months.If you drew a straight line from December 2020 (ignoring the 2021-2022 spike), prices are roughly where you'd expect them to be with normal market growth. The benchmark price has doubled since 2015, reflecting Kelowna's continued appeal as a place to live, raise a family, or retire.Town Homes: The Month's Biggest Surprise
The town home market delivered December's most shocking stat: a 10% price drop in a single month. The benchmark price fell from $750,000 in November to $675,000 in December. Year-over-year, prices are down 10%, and they're now 19% below the 2022 peak.November's price jump appears to have been an anomaly. Looking at the trend from September through December, there's a clear pattern of declining prices. Town home prices have now fallen below where they were at the bottom of the 2022 correction. I'll be watching January and February closely to see if this trend continues before spring.Condos: The Slide Continues
The condo market continues its downward trajectory. Prices dropped 3.3% from November to December, landing at a benchmark of $470,000. While that's essentially unchanged from last December, the trend since mid-2025 has been decidedly downward. Any gains made in the first half of the year have been completely erased.At 14.5% below the 2022 peak and now below the October 2022 correction bottom, condo prices have been falling consistently for six months. With over 14 months of available inventory, roughly one in every 14 listings sells each month. For condo sellers, pricing accurately for today's market isn't optional.What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
We're firmly in a buyer's market across all segments, though some are stronger than others. Single family homes sit at 8 months of inventory, town homes at 7.4 months, and condos at over 14 months. In the Okanagan, 4-6 months typically represents a balanced market.Buyers can expect to negotiate. On average, single family homes are selling 3-3.5% below list price, town homes 2-3% below, and condos around 3% below. With the highest inventory levels in a decade, there's room to find the right property at the right price.For first-time buyers, affordability is improving, particularly in the condo and town home segments. For investors who have been waiting, there may be opportunities to find rental properties that cash flow or break even from day one.For sellers, the message depends on your property type. Single family home sellers are in relatively good shape with stable pricing. Town home and condo sellers need to be realistic about where the market is today, price accordingly, and be prepared to negotiate.Have questions about what these numbers mean for your specific situation? Reach out anytime.